New world order – political, economic, strategic design

Political design doctrine… The collapse of Boris Johnson government in two days, Shinzo Abe assassination, Hunter Biden’s iCloud scandal… As the world is heading for a great economic depression in a spiral of inflation and recession, and after Russia started the Ukraine war, strategic polarization and historical hostilities have come to the fore. While it is out, there are interesting developments that show the domino effect on the design of politics.

From pacifism to militarism… The post-World War II demilitarization of Germany and Japan is intended to be reversed to be used against enemies like Russia and China. Germany’s desire to re-launch the Wehrmacht against the growing Russian threat is a phenomenon that the US will not oppose much this time.

On the Pacific side, the pointer is in Australia and Japan. While China has largely set its target as Taiwan, a militarized Australia in the south is the main perspective of AUKUS, which was formed jointly by the US and the UK. There is also the perspective of opening an Eastern front against the expansionism of both China and Russia in terms of Japan. After the Ukraine war started, the issue of the Kuril Islands, which was the subject of dispute between Japan and Russia, was brought to the agenda again. As for China, there is now Japan representing the pole where Western-type democracies are represented. While Japan was expansionist in the Sino-Japanese war in the 1930s, now it is desired to create a Japan that represents the West against Chinese expansionism.

Political design… After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which clearly stated its aims, the world political order also entered into a design process. Most recently, former prime minister Abe, the creator of economic steps known as Abenomics in Japan, was murdered. Abe had made great efforts to amend the 9th article of the constitution, which was written in 1947. According to the article, it is forbidden to form a conventional army in Japan, but a self-defense force can be formed. Rising nationalist tendencies in Asia, the imminent threat of North Korea and China, and increased military activity in the Pacific were the main motivations for Abe to change this clause. China continued to criticize Abe’s defense reform policies, warning that Japan should not abandon its post-war policy of pacifism.

Economy… Before the Second World War, there was the Economic Depression of 1929, and the reasons that created the war were mostly caused by the problems deepened by this crisis. Now let’s look at the trend: While the world was not over the 2008 crisis, we watched a period of several years when the markets were filled with money. While the economic design was progressing in this way, trade wars began with the arrival of Trump in 2017. As of 2020, a pandemic spiral has been entered. Now, there is global inflation pressure, and with the negative impact of political and geopolitical conditions, a deep recession is heading towards that will encompass the whole world.

Conclusion? The current economic, military, commercial and political conditions present very important references from history and show that a serious threat awaits the world on the verge of recent developments. There is a reality that if lessons are not learned from history, it will lead to new disasters. Any departure from normalization and the mentality of political and historical populism cause an alarming situation about possible dangers. Dialogue is needed more than ever before.

Kaynak: Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı