Ukraine counteroffensive and ZNPP situation

Russia and ZaporizhzhyaNPP. What’s happening? Since March 4, Russian troops have advanced on the territory of Ukraine to the Dnipro River and, in particular, to the nuclear power plant located on the south bank of the river.

Ukraine and the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 with a move that is not recognized by the international community. Source: Financial Times

Now on the front lines under the Russian occupation, the Ukrainians have been guarding the station since the invaders arrived. When the Russians arrived, most of the personnel fled, and the bravest remained compelled to avoid a nuclear disaster. The personnel operating the power plant live in the power plant area called Enerhodar, which is also under constant bombardment, and the personnel are both physically and mentally in danger. Since the beginning of the war, at least 2 personnel have died as a result of the shelling, with many others reporting torture and threats by Russian invaders.

Only from the end of July until today the NPP has been under constant bombardment, making the ZNPP the most threatening nuclear disaster ever experienced by humanity. The nuclear power plant with a total capacity of 6000 MW, if it explodes as a result of any attack, will result in about 3 times the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 (the origins of the bombing have been the subject of mutual accusations from both sides of the conflict, but more concrete evidence appears to say that Russia bombed the nuclear plant ).

Because of how great the threat was, the UN sent a team of 14 from the IAEA to investigate the power plant and help organize its safety. Last week, the head of operations sent his report showing that Russian military equipment was located at the facility and that all 7 indispensable pillars for ensuring nuclear safety and security were violated.

Ukrainian counter-attacks. To understand the situation more clearly, let’s first look at the map of Ukraine under Russian occupation.

Russian military control zones in Ukraine (May 15). Source: Institute for the Study of War, BBC

 -In the South.

 Ukraine has continued its southward offensive since the end of August; Senior US and Ukrainian officials told CNN on Wednesday that Ukrainian forces are making gains in the south with the ambitious goal of reclaiming most of the Russian-occupied Kherson region by the end of the year.

According to the geographical location of the video and satellite imagery, last week saw the most ambitious ground attacks by the Ukrainians since the beginning of the invasion, after repeated attacks on command posts, ammunition depots and fuel reserves.

According to a senior US official, the US has observed that Ukrainian forces have had some success in attacking Russian supply lines in an attempt to cut off and isolate Russian troops currently stationed west of the Dnipro River.

-In the East.

As the Ukrainians advance south, the Ukrainian Armed Forces pushes the Russian-occupied Northeast region of Kharkov.

The Institute for War Studies (ISW), a Washington-based analytical group, said in its daily report on the conflict on Wednesday that Kiev was “probably to advance at least 20 km into Russian-controlled territory in eastern Kharkiv Oblast by September 7 and recapture an area of ​​about 400 square kilometers.” He said he used tactical surprise.

“Ukrainian forces have probably used the prudent reallocation of Russian troops, equipment and overall operational focus to launch localized counterattacks at critical points in Kharkov Oblast,” the ISW said.

According to Ukrainian officials and footage of equipment moving geographically in Crimea by CNN, Russia has redeployed some of its forces south in recent weeks to strengthen its ranks ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kherson region.

Russian military control zones in Ukraine (11 September). Source: Institute for the Study of War, BBC

After breaking through the Russian defensive lines, several Ukrainian special forces units attacked towards the town of Kupiansk, 50 kilometers away, cutting off one of the main supply routes of the Russian army to northern Donbas.

On Sunday, visual evidence confirmed that Ukraine had regained control of three major cities (Kupiansk, Izium and Vovchansk). The Russian army was pushed back to the border north of Kharkov. “Since the beginning of September, more than 3,000 square kilometers of area has returned to Ukrainian control,” Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, said in the evening.

What does it mean for Russia? This counterattack is the biggest defeat of the Russian army since the beginning of the invasion. While the Russians were fleeing the area, they had a large number of ammunition, weapons, food, etc., taken by the Ukrainian soldiers behind them. These soldiers reported that the military equipment was quite old, mostly dating from the 70s-80s. This can mean 2 things:

-This is bad news for Ukraine as it shows that Russia is still in the early stages of the war. Russia uses its oldest equipment, combined with its least experienced soldiers, to make the enemy fragile before sending a serious attack.

-Russia is struggling to find enough new equipment to cover the entire territory it occupies. This is most likely because Russia moved equipment in the South to mitigate their losses, which began before the offensive against the East.

It is hard to imagine that Russia, regretting such losses, would not launch a counter-offensive. The country’s defense minister has warned that Ukraine must secure the vast territory it recaptured from possible Russian counterattack, saying the lightning strike from Kiev went “much better than expected”.

The offensive routed the Kremlin’s forces, led to the recapture of 3,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, and led Russia’s defense ministry to an unusual recognition that its troops had to withdraw. On Monday morning, Ukraine also restored electricity services after Russian attacks attacked the country’s infrastructure in retaliation.

Russia’s immediate reaction. On Sunday night, Russia attacked Ukraine with artillery and missile attacks from the Black Sea.

In Kharkov, the night after an attack on the country’s second largest thermal power plant caused a complete blackout. The Donetsk region also experienced a total power outage, while Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy suffered partial blackouts.

However, according to President Zelenskyy’s deputy head of office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, on Monday morning Ukraine restored electricity and water services to the city of Kharkiv, while electricity services elsewhere in the region were improved by 80%.

 What could be Russia’s strategy? Our personal theory is that Russia can voluntarily weaken an area to allow the enemy to break in and gather strength in the area in question. This is to encircle the area to counterattack better and inflict more damage than sustained. This theory could be supported by the fact that only old equipment was found in the Eastern Region and the Russians fled so quickly that they did not have time to finish their meal.

Russia’s defense ministry claimed on Saturday that its forces had withdrawn from the strategic city of Izyum and had decided to “regroup” and transfer them to the Donetsk region in the southeast.

Officials and military analysts warned that the success of the attack did not mean that Ukrainian troops were about to withdraw Russian forces to the border.

Defense Minister Reznikov said the almost simultaneous counterattack around Kherson was progressing more slowly because it was an agricultural area with “irrigation canals” that the Russians could use as defensive trenches.

Casualties there are reportedly heavy, and the Ukrainian general staff said 1,200 Chechen soldiers have been deployed to support Russian positions.

Reznikov said that it was used to prevent the Chechens from leaving their positions. This is bad news for Ukrainians, as Russian fugitives played a large part in the number of Ukrainians’ “slight” casualties.

Meanwhile, a Chechen battalion joined forces with Ukraine. Chechens have been Russia’s sworn enemies since Russia bombed and completely destroyed many of their homes when they were children. Chechens defending Ukraine said, “Wherever Russia declares war in the world, it will follow it to fight it. Their only purpose in life now is to take up arms against Russia – wherever they may be.”

 Conclusion? Russia suffers serious losses while doing nothing besides its target energy infrastructures. Russian soldiers have been fleeing from the front since the beginning of the war, and the Russian soldiers, who are the subject of Russian propaganda and do not even know what they are doing there, show a strong lack of determination.

Ukraine has reclaimed large amounts of land in the East and continues to push the South to regain key strategic points. Now they will have to rearrange their defenses because Russia is likely to respond to their counterattack.

All this is happening despite the fact that the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant is still under bombardment, despite the IAEA putting pressure on both sides to demilitarize the area and completely stop compromising the integrity and security of the nuclear plant.

Kaynak: Tera Yatırım-Enver Erkan
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