Energy use and decarbonization

Structure of energy input in sectors other than energy. Agriculture. Agriculture itself is an energy conversion process, that is, the conversion of solar energy through photosynthesis into food energy for humans and feed for animals. Primitive agriculture involved little more than scattering seeds and accepting the resulting meager crop.

Modern agriculture requires an energy input at all stages of agricultural production, such as direct energy use in agricultural machinery, water management, irrigation, cultivation and harvesting.

Post-harvest energy use includes energy for food processing, storage and transportation to markets. In addition, there are many indirect or isolated energy inputs used in agriculture in the form of mineral fertilizers and chemical pesticides, insecticides and herbicides.

While industrialized countries have benefited from these advances in energy availability for agriculture, developing countries have not been so lucky. “Energizing” the food production chain has been a key feature of agricultural development throughout recent history and is a major factor in helping ensure food security. Developing countries lagged behind industrialized countries in modernizing their energy inputs to agriculture.

-Input-output ratio between 1975-2000.

Among the inputs used in the calculation of energy use in agriculture, both human and animal labor, machinery, electricity, diesel, fertilizer, seeds and 36 agricultural products are included in the output total. The energy values were calculated by multiplying the input and output quantities by their energy equivalents using the relevant conversion factors. The output-input ratio is determined by dividing the output value by the input value. The results showed that the total energy input increased from 17.4 GJ/ha in 1975 to 47.4 GJ/ha in 2000. Similarly, total output energy increased from 38.8 to 55.8 GJ/ha in the same period. As a result, the output-input ratio was estimated as 2.23 in 1975 and 1.18 in 2000. This result shows that there is a decrease in the output-input energy ratio.

-Russia’s share in the aforementioned products.

According to the Food Policy Research Institute, Russia accounts for 15% of global trade in nitrogen fertilizers and 17% of global potassium fertilizer exports. The country is also responsible for 20% of global natural gas trade, a key component in fertilizer production.

Russia used to export 4.4 million tons of ammonia annually, accounting for 20% of global maritime trade. About 2.5 million tons passed through the pipeline and 1.9 million tons passed through the Baltic ports.

-Construction

Phases of energy input throughout the life of a building. Source: Design of A Sustainable Building: A Conceptual Framework for Implementing Sustainability in the Building Sector (Akdiri, Chinyio, Olomolaiye, 2012)

 The manufacturing process in cement manufacturing plants is typically energy-intensive and requires large amounts of resources. A typical well-equipped facility consumes about 4 GJ of energy to produce one ton of cement, while world cement production is around 3.6 billion tons per year. It is estimated that the cement production process consumes about 7% of industrial energy consumption.

-Industry

 The industrial sector uses more energy than any other end-use sector, consuming around 54% of the world’s total shipped energy. The industrial sector can be classified into three different types of industries: energy-intensive manufacturing, non-energy-intensive manufacturing, and non-manufacturing (table 1 below). The mix and density of fuels consumed in the industrial sector differ between regions and countries, depending on the level and mix of economic activity and technological development. Energy is used for a wide variety of purposes in the industrial sector, such as process and assembly, steam and cogeneration, heating, cooling, and lighting and air conditioning for buildings. Industrial sector energy consumption also includes basic chemical raw materials. Natural gas raw materials are used in the production of agricultural chemicals. Natural gas liquids (NGL) and petroleum products (such as naphtha) are used in the manufacture of organic chemicals and plastics, among other uses.

In the International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) Reference example, worldwide industrial sector energy consumption is projected to increase at an average rate of 1.2% per year, from 222 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2012 to 309 quadrillion Btu in 2040. (Second table). Most of the long-term growth in energy consumption in the industrial sector occurs in countries outside the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). From 2012 to 2040, industrial energy consumption in non-OECD countries is growing at an average of 1.5% a year, compared to 0.5% a year in OECD countries. Non-OECD industrial energy consumption, which constituted 67% of the energy supplied by the world industrial sector in 2012, is expected to constitute 73% of the energy consumption of the world industrial sector in 2040.

Overall, total industrial sector energy use increases from 73 quadrillion Btu in OECD countries in 2012 to 85 quadrillion Btu in 2040 and from 149 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 225 quadrillion Btu in 2040 in non-OECD countries. OECD industrial sector energy use is growing slowly, at an average annual rate of 0.5% from 2012 to 2040, in the IEO2016 Reference example. The industrial sector accounts for around 40% of total OECD energy use from 2012 to 2040. In the non-OECD industrial sector, the share of energy use falls from 64% in 2012 to 59% in 2040, as many non-OECD emerging economies are moving away from energy-intensive production and energy use is growing faster in all other end-use sectors.

World industrial sector: main groupings and representative sectors. Source: EIA

The energy provided by the world industrial sector on the basis of region and energy source, 2012-40 (quadrillion Btu) Data on industrial sector energy consumption does not include cycle losses in electricity sector generation plants. Fuels including energy used for combined heat and power plants (cogeneration) in the industrial sector ( natural gas, liquids and renewables). Source: EIA

 The struggle for decarbonisation. The industry faces a paradox: A global middle class, which is expected to grow by 3 billion people over the next two decades, will increase the demand for industry to produce more commodities at cheaper prices. But the realities of environmental degradation, along with restrictions on essential resources such as copper and zinc, will create barriers for the industry to meet these demands.

Although the industry produces about a quarter of global GDP and employment, it also produces 28% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. This fact is linked to increasing political pressure to reduce global environmental degradation. The 2015 Paris Agreement will require an 80 to 90 percent reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius. These targets cannot be achieved without decarbonizing industrial activities.

The decarbonization industry will not be easy, especially among the four sectors that contribute to 45% of carbon dioxide emissions: cement, steel, ammonia and ethylene. The process requires redesigning production processes from the ground up and redesigning existing facilities with costly rebuilds or retrofits. Also, companies that adopt low-carbon manufacturing processes will see a short- to medium-term increase in their costs, ultimately putting them at an economic disadvantage in a competitive global commodity market.

Stopping climate change requires revolutionary transformations in industry and agriculture. Ahead of several major climate meetings, policymakers struggling to measure progress on climate change should focus less on global emissions, which will be slow to change, and more on technological advances in leading niches.

 Conclusion? Our industries today are more energy-hungry than they were a few decades ago. It has to do with the fact that the population is increasing and wanting more goods. As we have seen in the agricultural sector, the energy input-output ratio has drastically decreased as better machinery and chemicals allow farmers to perform much better with less effort. As for the industrial sector, they follow the increasing demand and often cause them to create different technologies that consume more energy. But since the last decade, researchers have begun to focus more on sustainable energy development and machinery that will make the generated energy cheaper and cleaner than conventional energies.

Moreover, there is already a strong difference between developed countries and developing countries. Although developing countries are less industrialized, they follow the path of developed countries while trying to increase their influence in global trade. As this industrialization increases global energy demand, greener energy supply is growing very slowly.

Kaynak: Tera Yatırım- Enver Erkan
Hibya Haber Ajansı