Turkey: Trade deficit widens more than 5 times due to energy bill

According to the leading foreign trade data of October announced by the Ministry of Commerce within the scope of GTS (general trade system); Compared to the same month of the previous year, exports increased by 2.8% to USD 21.3 billion, while imports increased by 31.9% to USD 29.3 billion in the same period. In this context, the foreign trade deficit widened in the 12th month due to the increase in the energy bill, increasing by 430.4 percent to 8 billion US dollars in October compared to 1.5 billion US dollars in the 2021 matching period. As a result, the 12-month foreign trade deficit rose to USD 104 billion as of October 2022. In the January-October period, the foreign trade deficit increased by 168.5% compared to the same period of the previous year and reached USD 91.1 billion.

While Germany was the country we exported to the most in September, it was followed by the USA, Iraq and Russia. In import items; In October 2022, Russia was the main energy supplier (an annual increase of 106.9%), followed by China, Switzerland and Germany. Looking at the goods groups, exports of raw materials (intermediate goods) (0.6%), investment (capital) (21.7%) and consumption (0.3%) increased compared to the previous year. On the import side, despite the 32% increase due to commodity prices in the raw material category; investment goods increased by 25.9% and consumer goods increased by 39.3%.

Turkey’s Foreign Trade Balance, Million USD… Source: Ministry of Commerce, Bloomberg, Tera Yatirim

The path in Turkey’s foreign trade imbalance shows that the increase in exports has faded from last year’s currency meltdown and inflation is catching up with producers. At the same time, the global rise in oil and natural gas prices, which began after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, accelerated imports despite a noticeable slowdown in economic activity in the second half of the year. Although preliminary data do not include a breakdown of all trade, it shows that imports from Russia, an important oil and gas resource for Turkey, increased by 106.9% compared to the previous year, reaching $5 billion, more than any other country.

Kaynak: Tera Yatırım-Enver Erkan
Hibya Haber Ajansı