Düzeltme-Global: Lavrov: The geographic objectives of our special military operation in Ukraine have changed to include a number of other regions beyond Donbas and Luhansk

Lavrov’s statements show that Russia will want to go further in Ukraine and will want to break the resistance by making a stronger attack for Kyiv. Highlights from Lavrov’s statements;

In Ukraine, the geographical targets of “special operations” have changed from only DNR (Donetsk People’s Republic) and LPR (Luhansk People’s Republic) to many other regions.

Geographical targets in Ukraine will be further advanced if the West provides long-range weapons to Kyiv.

After being repulsed in the first attempt to take Kyiv, Russia said on 25 March that the first phase of the special operation had been completed and would now focus on “the main objective, the liberation of Donbas.” About four months later, the Russians took Luhansk, one of the two regions that make up the Donbas, but are far from capturing the other, Donetsk. However, it has captured territory far beyond the Donbas, especially in the southern Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, and continues its missile attacks on cities across Ukraine.

Nord Stream will open tomorrow under normal conditions, it seems that whether Gazprom will continue the stream under the same conditions from now on will depend on geopolitical developments. The statements of the Putin administration regarding the sanctions, especially pointing to the supply of parts, and the EU’s plans to reduce imports from Russia indicate that there will be a 15-20% decrease in flow in any case. If Russia expands the operation, as Lavrov said, and even tries to seize Kyiv, it is of course possible that this trend will decrease further with bilateral sanctions and actions. The partial cessation of gas deliveries is already affecting the growth of Europe, adding to that the trade, sanctions and financial links, the effect is certainly greater. Either way, it looks like recession is knocking on the door.

Russia Ural oil and Brent oil spread… Source: Bloomberg

Cutting off the gas supply will have far more significant implications for Germany and Central Europe. There are some local slowdowns in Europe, which is already subject to partial cuts, and its spread may lead to situations where the US sells energy to Europe at high prices if access to energy sources is restricted. Russia continues to sell its energy and continues to generate income thanks to the oil they sell cheaply to buyers in Asia, while countries such as China and India use the low-cost production they make with the energy they produce cheaply in international markets as a competitive advantage, or make a profit for Europe.

Not: “Haberin kaynağı şehven yazılmış olup, ‘Tera Yatırım’ olarak değiştirilmiştir.”

Kaynak: Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı